I have to say I am disappointed in people attacking Alan Gin because his numbers don’t match what you think will happen. You have to realize that Alan isn’t telling you what will happen but what could happen. Forecasts are only based on previous numbers, and the current situation hasn’t been seen before to this extent. Could he be wrong? Yes. Could he be right? Yes. What Alan Gin is reporting is the numbers as he has interpreted them.
I had the pleasure of working with Alan Gin in a business forecasting class and he is an amazing teacher, and if you look at all the numbers he has I have to agree with him on the plateau of prices over the next year or so overall. The decline in the RE market will not be overnight like a decline in the stock market. The effects of things like creative financing are hard to forecast because there isn’t the historical numbers there to draw on. People should also remember that Alan is looking at San Diego overall not just one area. I worked on a forecast for the urban core area and I forecasted a slight INCREASE in prices even though there would be a decrease in sales. Some areas are a lot riskier than others. Personally wouldn’t buy downtown.
I was glad to see Alan defend himself. Instead of attacking him take the time to look over his forecasts and you might agree with him.
