I hate to say it but I still vehemently disagree at least as my home turf goes. $2.5M is much too high a price point for North County Coastal areas as there never have been many sales at that price point. On Neptune there have been 2 to 4 oceanfront sales per year in the MLS at that price point the last few years.
Moving to South Carlsbad, there aren’t any (ZERO!!) oceanfront/$2.5M coastal homes. In North Carlsbad, there have been 2 oceanfront sales at $7M and $8.2 this Summer both RECORDS by a HUGE margin. There was also one for $2.65M on Garfield overlooking the lagoon. There was one for $5.75 in Summer 2005 and one on Garfield for $3.25M. Before that there was only one sale above $2.5M on Tierra del Oro (my favorite street) in 2004 and none before that.
I’m seeing huge sales numbers above $1.7M for new coastal luxury homes in Encinitas. Barrat sold 7 homes over $2M in Sidonia right off Encinitas Ranch Golf Course. The activity along La Costa Avenue West of 5 has been strong the last year. Sheridan Estates by California Cove sold 8 homes above $1.5M and there are a couple other infill projects at this price point right next door. Barratt is building another (Nantucket) right now.
Bugs, I think you are barking up the wrong tree. The class of homes being built and sold along Coastal North County barely existed prior to 2005.