I hate to disppoint the post about small investors moving the prices of this instrument. However, as someone who routinely commits to trades of seven figures and never sees the market move even a tick on the fills, I have to tell you that small investors have no influence at all in this market. Even a Goldman Sachs can only move prices for a few seconds so make no mistake about it, those models you refer to are exactly what determine where this market goes.
The seasonal bias heavily favors a upward move in yields into June, followed by a downward move through the end of the year from there. This has been particularly prominent during election years. The logic behind that I think is obvious, but that has what has historically occurred. The commercials are kind of in the middle here as far as positioning goes, so they are of no help at the moment in terms of guessing about direction. As a result, my guess is higher rates for the next few months, followed by a decline from there for the balance of the year.
I will be looking to put a long postion on in June and hold it through years end, unless something has changed dramatically leading up to that date.
