I don’t think Trump or Bush have better than a 2% chance of actually winning, for the record. Bush has a ton of cash, but he’s got no personality… he doesn’t even seem to really WANT to be president.
So Scenario #1 was Rubio. Here’s Scenario #2 (Chickens run the Henhouse)
Clinton still wins the Democratic Nomination because Bernie polls poorly with minority voters, a huge chunk of the Democratic Coalition.
Cruz wins Iowa, takes second in New Hampshire (or wins a very crowded field there), and manages to grind his way to the nomination as a sort of compromise between the Trump wing (~25% of the party) and everyone else.
Clinton of course destroys Cruz in the general election, because he’s Cruz. Massive Coat Tails allow Democrats to take 4 seats in the Senate to take a 50-50 tie, and the House is too close to call on Election Night. Ultimately Paul Ryan holds onto the speakership by a slim majority, but can’t pass anything past his own caucus, much less send it to the Senate to get rejected.
