I don’t have handy access to

[stansd]

I don’t have handy access to default swap quotes…Jan ’09 put options quotes below. Notice the price on the $5 puts (Up a huge amount today, no doubt). Expensive, yes, but nowhere near what you would see if Bankruptcy was imminent.

I’m too far gone from this type of analysis to pin it well, but looks to me like the odds of bankruptcy implied in the quotes are in the 30% range (up from maybe 10% yesterday). Keep in mind this is on a day when the market was in an absolute panic.

Not to say that they don’t have big issues, and those percentages are something to take note of, but they don’t imply bankruptcy is around the corner.

Stan

PUT OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Jan 16, 2009

Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
5.00 OZFMA.X 1.50 1.05 1.30 1.70 200 70
7.50 OZFMR.X 2.10 0.60 2.20 2.85 124 2,213
10.00 OZFMB.X 3.10 0.40 3.10 3.90 424 2,950
12.50 OZFMS.X 4.40 0.60 3.90 4.90 100 1,778
15.00 OZFMC.X 5.10 0.40 5.10 5.70 199 640
17.50 OZFMT.X 7.00 1.00 6.10 7.10 807 148
20.00 OZFMD.X 7.50 0.20 7.30 7.70 558 8,239
22.50 OZFMX.X 9.40 1.60 8.60 9.70 111 335
25.00 OZFME.X 10.30 0.00 9.90 11.00 385 6,064
30.00 OZFMF.X 13.00 0.30 12.90 13.50 177 5,925
35.00 OZFMG.X 17.20 0.30 16.20 17.30 134 4,247
37.50 OZFMU.X 21.60 3.50 17.90 19.10 60 908
40.00 OZFMH.X 21.30 1.50 19.70 21.10 149 7,757
45.00 OZFMI.X 24.80 0.00 24.30 25.90 22 274
50.00 OZFMJ.X 31.00 5.60 28.60 31.10 1 481
55.00 OZFMK.X 37.00 12.00 34.10 36.00 1 49