I do finance for a fortune 100 company on a very big part of their portfolio and have a good window into the pulse of the world economy.
I’ve considered buying in as well, and may still. I can tell you, though, that the carnage is still ramping up. People will be astounded by both earnings and layoffs in the coming months. The holes have been put in the dike, but the dam will break.
Honestly, though, the U.S. is looking better than the rest of the world. Asia Pacific and Europe are looking really rough. Their stock markets have also taken a bigger beating, though, and the dollar is artificially inflated right now, so I’d say it’s a toss up-things may be priced in.
That’s a lot of context, but be very, very wary of looking at P/E’s right now forward or backward. They make things seem like a much better value than they actually are. Bankruptcies, layoffs, and defaults are just now hitting full steam.
I see this as binary. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the dow at 10K or 6K a year from now.
