I didn’t mean autos manufactured by the US car makers, but new car sales. Every time that new car sales fell by at least 2%, we entered a recession. They fell 2.4% in June.
Here’s a link from Barry Ritholtz.
The Car Dealer Doldrums Indicator:
“According to Norris [New York Times], there is a surprisingly positive correlation when the figure is a negative 2% or greater. The indicators suggests a recession is either “under way or set to begin within a few months.” According to the chart, it has never warned of a recession that did not occur….The rule — unveiled here for the first time — is that if the figure is down 2 percent or more, a recession is either under way or set to begin within a few months. The figure fell to a negative 2.4 percent when June sales figures were released last week by the Census Bureau.
If things are miserable for America’s new-car dealers, can a recession be averted? History says it cannot and suggests a downturn may have already begun.
The available data go back to 1968, a period in which the American economy has recorded six recessions. The “dealer doldrums indicator,” as we will call it, called five of them, missing the 1981-82 recession only because it was not persuaded that the 1980 downturn had ever ended. It has never warned of a recession that did not occur.”
AN, I’m just curious, is the possibility of a recession worrisome to you? Do you think your job could be affected?
