I didnt ask you to put faith in me forecasting “by gut”. So far it hasnt failed me so I’ll stick with it until proven otherwise. The numbers you present are “your numbers”. I have no faith in them just as I have no faith in any reported statistics. I’ve seen too much that makes me question them. Interestingly, you constantly question the voracity of reported numbers that don’t support your viewpoint (i.e. inflation rates) while accepting those that do. I don’t accept the ones that support or contradict my viewpoint.
BTW, there are a lot of different kinds of adjustable mortgages. Some will adjust soon and some still have a long way to go. I know people with adjustable mortgages that could pay them off in cash if they want. I know this might be more the exception than the rule but I think the data on mortgages out there is crap.