I can’t see us taking the Japan path for various reasons.
We are significantly more leveraged and open to interest rate shock with the volume of adjustable rate mortgages.
Also the japanese where net savers – we’ve been net debtors for a while now – they had significant reserves to ride out any downturn in their market – most people here have little or none.
I think this bust is going to surprise most people with it’s speed and ferocity – certainly substantially faster than the previous few here in California.
I think the first 3 years will be the most brutal – no idea on when the bottom will be – but the big losses will happen in the first 3 years.
