I do feel that yes we are in a secular downtrend. However I am seeing active to pending ratios that are better then they have been for most all of 2006. I feel our secular trend will occur over a few years and we will have cyclical rallies in the long trend. I also believe condos are going to continue to get hit hard and lower income neighborhoods where most buyers are in need of subprime financial vehicles will also suffer more then other neighborhoods.
Don’t get me wrong as I am a buyer looking for a home. I feel that the profiles of buyers is alot different then it used to be. We have seen the exit of speculators, and now we will see the exit of buyers who should not be in the market.
Also note that in many many neighborhoods prices already have declined to 2003/2004 levels based on zip code and housing type.
As always I could very well be wrong.
I guess not many people are recalling the 25000 home inventory level we were all talking about last year. I am not saying it will not happen. I am saying it will not happen this year. Maybe in 2008.
While my posting is speculative, the number of homes for sale in San Diego county is at 15.8k and my previous post shows active/pending ratios for some zip codes.
I think it will be a slow simmer rather then a fast meltdown.
