I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now…
This is one of the few of Scoreboard’s opinions that I am certain will be proven wrong within 24 months.
One need not look at cyclical trends of the dollar. Intead, just punch the numbers into your calculator: 1) The total amount of debt (known including unfunded oblications=SS, Medicare..etc, plus inevitable additional “emergency” expenditures) the US Fed must auction in the next 24 months. 2) The now insanely high ratio of our total national debt to GDP, where total debt must include various unfunded obligations: war, SS, Medicare.
Plus those nations that have previously bought hundreds of billions of US securities – mostly to manage their currency against the trade deficit now see the USA dramatically reducing our purchases of their exports (not keeping up our end of the bargain), plus they themselves are now in recession.
