I agree with gdcox that the analysis of the rental market is tough due to the lack of published studies by outside observers.
I actually perform rent surveys in many of my assignments, although most of those involve commercial properties. However, I’ve been watching the residential rental market, too, by which I mean the apartment market. I only follow the rents for detached homes on an incidental basis.
What I can say is that apartment rents are weak, regardless of what you may be reading in the newspapers. Compared to apartment rents, the rental structure for detached homes seems to be somewhat overpriced.
To a dedicated renter (someone who can/will only purchase if there is no risk of downside) there is no reason to pay twice as much rent for a home as for an apartment or condo of similar size. A detached home is worth more rent, no doubt, but at most that premium is only going to add another 30% to the rent, all other things being equal.
If I can rent a 2bd apartment for $1000 in North Park (and I can, all day long), then based on the historical trends a 2bd house on its own lot would only be $300 more than that. Except right now it’s not – at present it’s more like $500 or $600 extra.
A household earning $68,000/year can comfortably spend (at 30%) about $20,400/year in housing. That’s $1700/month. Renters have no incentive to spend more than 30% of their income on housing if they can at all avoid it. There aren’t very many 3bd homes in the county that you can rent at $1700/month; and certainly none in any neighborhood you’d feel safe in walking to the local 7-11 after dark.
A $75,000 annual household income puts you into the top 30% of households in the county – that equals less than $1900/month rent potential.
I think there’s some room for rents to come down. I don’t know about there being 30% extra, but I’d imagine 10% is a sure thing.
