I agree with Bugs that the drop in sales is definitely troubling and distress sales are on the rise. There is no question about it. Prices will continue to fall, we just dont know how much. For over a year I’ve forecasted a 30% nominal drop peak to trough while others are expecting/hoping for much more. Given what I see happening with the market a 30% nominal drop is not in the bag anymore IMHO.
I believe the biggest and fastest nominal drop we will see occur in a 12 month period already have occurred in 2006. I expect to see a prolonged period of slightly declining to flat prices where a large portion of the decline happens in real rather than nominal terms. Probably not what most bears want to hear but likely in my book. If you look at Rich’s latest graph on the home page you see that is what happened last time around. I could be wrong and if so, I can deal with that. My advice to bears would be to be prepared for that scenario also.
