I agree Allan- I have no idea how these wars will end and what the ramifications will be in ending them. I think Iraq has a better chance of sustainability than Afghanistan only based on their commerce; oil vs. opium.
I don’t know how Iraq’s ethnic groups will get along though. Will Shia’s accept a Sunni president and vice versu without an American presence? Is it almost better to divide the country into two states? I don’t know. Then you would have a diaspora of each ethnic group. It’s tough. Don’t forget about Hezbollah(Lebanon) and Syria and how they could help the Shia populace and a possible Shia/Iranian superpower: