Housing: In San Diego, a more moderate decline than 2008 as some of the short-term benefits (that is, putting off the inevitable) of the bailouts and Fed activity loosens up credit, and the tide is still not out with regard to employment and other economic fundamentals. I’ll go with 10% overall. Nationwide, continued decline on a more consistent basis, with areas not yet affected (including mine, unfortunately) experiencing problems. 10% nationwide decline as well. Unfortunately, this is the eye of the hurricane passing over.
Jobs: A bloodbath in 2009. It won’t seem as bad in California where levels are already high, but national numbers will approach 9%. San Diego, the same or higher. I cringe thinking about 2010.
Oil: Fairly flat. OPEC still doesn’t have its act together and won’t sufficiently curtail production, keeping prices relatively low. Gas prices will increase a fair amount in the summer nationwide, in the mid 2’s nationwide.
Gold: All over the place, with current prices being the approximate floor. Gold is a panic commodity in the midst of a panic, and I expect its price to reflect that.
Dollar: Will do okay against the Euro only because Europe is in the same boat. The dollar flat or slightly improved against the Euro. The Yen will be flat or slightly improved against the dollar.
Overall: 2009 will not be a good economic year, Year 2 of what I see as at least a four year period of relative gloom. 2010 will be the real mess as the credit crisis enters round two on top of poor economic fundamentals. If I’m going to call a bottom to the real estate crash, it’s 2010-11, when people will be able to pick up some good investments. That is, if anyone has a job.
