Hi Contrarian — Thanks for the compliment. Unfortunately I am not able to easily engage in back and forth discussions on securities or anything security-like (eg gold) –boring details of why are at this post.
I can however point you to some stuff I’ve previously written on gold here in these two comments
I can also talk about people, so I can say that I am not a big fan of Fisher. I think he’s done some very interesting work on the behavioral finance side of things (I have not yet read his book but it’s on my shelf and I intend to). That said he loses major points for having continuously and stridently denied the existence of the housing bubble throughout. For instance, a quick googling comes up with this utterly misguided Forbes article by Ken Fisher, Feb 26 2007:
Don’t buy it. For months now the debate has been over whether America will have a hard landing or soft landing, the answer hinging on how big 2007’s housing disaster turns out to be. Well, there won’t be any housing disaster. We won’t have a landing at all, soft or hard. Right now the U.S. and global economies are both accelerating.
You can see right through the housing crash story by looking at the prices of housing stocks. The market knows what the economic worrywarts do not, which is that the housing sector is already making a comeback. In the last six months housing stocks are up 24%, well ahead of the overall market. If housing were destined to fall apart in 2007 these stocks wouldn’t be so strong now.
What’s happened since those words were written provides commentary enough so I won’t add to it.
I’ve got some other thoughts on what you wrote, some in agreement and some in disagreement, but that would get more into the kind of stuff I’d have to get approved so I will leave it at that. As always anyone is welcome to email me at [email protected].
