Good stuff JG,
For months I have claimed the peak was between April 2004 and June 2004. Powayseller has corrected me saying I was wrong dozens of times and that it was in Summer 2005. I said I knew it because of my gut instinct of being there. She has insulted me time and again saying someone who goes by their instincts is delusional. I do plenty of analysis and hold a handful of graduates degrees from prominent top tier universities. I have continually warned you all that the data is absolutely horrible and not to put too much emphasis on over analyzing it. The data is a constantly moving target. How can you compare prices from a year ago with prices today that are laden with incentives. Answer: You cannot! My gut has served me well in my career and has earned me far more than any of the degrees I’ve earned. I always laugh at people who think they should make lots of money because they are smart. Being smart is helpful but what really matters is having the convictions to act on your beliefs rather than sitting back paralyzed in fear.
BTW, taking money off the table is not acting on one’s convictions, its taking a profit. Creating wealth necessitates putting your chips on the table. It is what Chris Johnson does, it is what Docteur does and it is what many on this board do. Many but not all.
