[quote=FormerSanDiegan][This already happened in the mid- to late-1980’s. Our lords at that time were the Japanese.
What pulled us out of that spiral ?[/quote]
That’s a great question. I remember those times clearly. I believe in hindsight it is apparent that we were overly concerned about the Japanese becoming our new masters. Say about 1986 that was really in vogue. Many folks were predicting it at the time as an obviously inevitable outcome.
I think for one thing we underestimated the impact of their demographic shift (aging). Might another factor have been self-fulfilling optimism (justified or not) that seemed to accompany the transition from Carter to Reagan?
Another factor I believe Greenspan used to say was increased productivity due to technology. Certainly there is some truth to that one. If any of you remember the days of copy pools and whiteout correction fluid and telexes and pay phones…
Now, are any factors like that on the horizon to help us this time? I don’t see them yet, but of course that is the nature of things that are over the horizon. It seems to me we have many negatives and many positives for our future.
The question to me is, will this downturn be cyclical (as all the others have been), or is this the start of a permanent secular downturn? I think anyone arguing the latter really has the onus on them to justify why “it’s different this time”. Certainly there were several folks on this board two years ago who predicted we would have long since descended into anarchy by now. Remember those posts? Maybe they were just long gold… As I recall they were hoarding seeds and bullets and water. How’d that work out? I guess they probably made some good salads from their gardens though…
