I tend to think of China as several “countries” within one. There are modern parts, rural parts, etc…
I don’t really see a 2008 global recession starting in China. Our banks and European banks don’t have exposure to Chinese debt that fueled those ghost town developments. Maybe an S&L type crisis within China.
Hong Kong is interesting. Even after the handover to China, real estate in HK kept on escalating. Now the most expensive in the world ppsf, I believe.[/quote]
China is essentially multiple countries disguised as (or forced into) a singular nation. Multiple languages that would otherwise be national languages are instead termed “regional dialects” to minimize their status and importance. The ethnic diversity within China varies as widely as the entirety of Europe. When it comes to its economy, tier 1 cities and coastal provinces are essentially near par with the Asian Tigers, with some of the inland provinces as poor as the Central Asian “stans,” with everything else somewhere in between.
We are already seeing significant hit on the commodities with the China slowdown. with so much Chinese money flowing out into international real estate, if that outflow stops, what happens to the real estate markets that are exposed to Chinese money?
We may not see global recession, but China is plugged in enough to cause significant changes.
