[quote=flu] I don’t get the point of your paranoia. If things were to collapse, its doesn’t happen all the sudden overnight. If you are really that paranoid about things cratering then leave your money in a 1%CD+, and wake me up 8 years from now to let me know how that worked out for you. My 16+ years in a well diversified portfolio seems to worked alright…Afterall, I doubt I would have been able to live free and clear on a primary and almost all rentals had I left everything in a 1%CD. Just saying…
Ubber bears are just a funny a perma bulls. The later loses money by staying in the markets too long or entering too high. The former loses money by convincing oneself over paranoia and the sky is falling mentality to never to enter, just like housing starting in 2009.[/quote]
who knows what the future might bring,… the economy could crash all at once, or it might not (I’ll be the first to admit there is no way of knowing w/ 100% certainty)
as I see things ITS NOT PARANOIA but rather “healthy skepticism” of the system if one considers that ALL “investors” (i.e. you, me, insurance companies, pension funds, etc.) are seeking investment vehicles that at a minimum out pace the cost of living
since there is a finite class of assets that consistently produce returns like real estate rentals in areas with relatively strong job markets (i.e. san diego, the bay area, new york, london, HK, etc.) we see that “money” is attracted to those assets/areas which in turn causes “real estate” prices in prime areas (like SD) to rise!
[quote=loopnet.com]
Current San Diego market trends data indicates an increase of +8.6% in the median asking price per unit for Multifamily properties
it then follows in order to service the debt load for newly acquired RE “investment(s)” in prime areas, that “rents” have to increase!
[quote=cbs8.com] San Diego rent is through the roof
San Diego may be a beautiful place to live, but it has become more and more expensive for renters. San Diego rent has increased three-percent in the past year.
ALSO (any realistic math model of the real world) one needs to consider the boundary conditions or “limits” (i.e. water, energy like oil for transportation and electricity for manufacturing, skill sets of the people in the area, etc.) because all these ingredients mix together and produce an economy…
as it stands in the san diego area IMHO there are too many $hit for brains individuals who don’t understand basic math, are corrupted to various degrees AND influence policy/operations, so the logical conclusion is the economy will somehow have to reflect the reality of the groups corruption/mismanagement
looking at history, its inevitable that the system will have some kind of adjustment like a major deleveraging (i.e asset deflation or weakening of various currencies) because the data indicates a situtation that exists right now HAS NEVER EXISTED and my gut feeling is its unsustainable!
if you think the current situtation is sustainable, then wager accordingly and best of luck w/ that…
FYI another way I’ve thought about the issue (i.e. a bubble of sorts w/ various knock on effects) is to consider the case where higher end RE is a way to is a way to launder “dirty” money:
basically “hot” money has driven RE prices upward (in specific markets), which might be likened to saying the 80%+ of the population that has not benefitted (to a great degree) from the economy since 2009 AND LIKEWISE 80%+ of the RE markets have not see a recovery (to a great degree)…
WRT how to “honestly” navigate/survive an economic environment w/ USA bank CDs returning ~ 1% at best, that’s the question ALL global “investors” (i.e. you, me, insurance companies, pension funds, etc.) are seeking an answer for!
the only thing I know for sure is that 10+ TRILLION is being held in various accounts w/ negative interest rates AND this tells me there is a shitload of money that is more concerned w/ return of capital than return on capital!! AND/OR have not found an investment vehicle that “they” feel is safe/suitable
looking at the big picture, I note that there are various commitments made by insurance companies and various public pensions funds being in the same boat as all the other money in the world
eventually TSHTF BECAUSE its pretty hard if not impossible for various “honest” public pensions portfolio managers to find investment vehicles that can yield the “high” AND “consistent” returns (as calculated by actuaries) which are needed to maintain portfolio “sustainability” given all the promises made (BTW same idea applies to insurance companies but in general the portfolios are much better managed than public pension funds)
to see bull$hit/corruption/mismanagement one need look no further than the “local” public portfolio which has a long history of a 13th pension payment… which sure as hell looks like a its well on its way to phuck things up in the economic realm
BTW the “ubber bear” or “perma bull” reference you made, does not apply in my case since I have not been all out, or all in (and don’t plan to change my style)
so while we wait for the other shoe to drop, I’ve been partial to preferred stock(s) (as a viable alternative to bank CDs that yield ~1%) because shares generally have a dividend >1% (which must be paid out before dividends to common shareholders) AND as an asset class it seems to have an acceptable risk/reward ratio
from what I gather you have various assets to play w/ like equities and RE (DISCLOSURE as do I) so WRT your proclaimed “alright” 16 year return, all I can say is PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT NECESSARILY PREDICT FUTURE RESULTS
for aspiring “investors” w/out sufficient economic resources to manage actual properties (i.e. play the RE “investment” game) and seek an alternative to 1%CDs try looking @ REIT etf(s) which offer a means of diversification, yield and a possibility of appreciation
is just part of forum bull$hit and not intended to be taken as “investment” advise! also FWIW yeah I think I’m smarter than everyone else!! (just like everyone else!!!) and I have a certificate to prove it!!!!
