[quote=esmith]
Now, Mason-Dixon poll is the only recent poll that shows Obama with less than 50% in CO or NV. That’s 14 points right there. More importantly, most polls also show more than 50% for Obama in PA. A win in PA would push Obama over 269 electoral candidates, even if each undecided voter in every one of the remaining 7 states decides to vote for McCain.
Will they? Just because they are white and undecided, does not mean that they are going to vote for McCain. There’s no good reason to think that they would vote anything other than 50:50 – if they show up at the polls at all.[/quote]
A PA win pretty much assures an Obama victory, I think. My theory (developed in all of 48 hours this weekend!) was that since the demographic of OH seems to largely mirror PA (Clinton won them both by nearly the same margins), and the fact that McCain made much progress in OH in the last few days was persuasive evidence that PA might fall the same way. It’s gonna be damn close, no matter which was PA goes. Count on that!
As for assuming that most undecideds will break for McCain: I am assuming this only because of their demographics: white, not so educated, leaning right. We know from our experience in the primaries that these voters fled Obama in droves and went to Hillary. If they have changed their values or their politics significantly in the past 7 months, then they may split evenly for both candidates. I kind of doubt that, though.
