Escondido isn’t San Diego either, but it’s still connected. People live where they live mostly as a result of their employment. Temecula has very little local employment of the sort that supports making mortgage payments, which is why it is considered a bedroom community of the areas that do have employment. That includes the OC and San Diego, as well as L.A..
Actually, the traffic getting into Temecula is a lot worse to/from San Diego County than it is to/from Orange or LA Counties.
Inasmuch as increases in price work from the inside (relative to employment) to the outside and vice-versa for decreases, what happens right now in the outlying areas like Temecula and to a lesser extent Northern SD County is an early indicator of things to come in the central SD area. Rancho Bernardo, Scripps and other areas close to employment aren’t demonstrating the big decreases right now because of their proximity to employment. But they’re still connected and they are not immune to the larger trend. It’s happened before and it’s already happening now, albeit at a much reduced level compared to the more distant towns.
It’s all about alternatives and substitution. Temecula provides a lower priced alternative – most of those people would choose to live closer to work if they could afford it. Since they can’t they are compelled to live in an outlying area and pay their dues via commuting time.
The tourism angle is nothing new, but it means more to the people who work in those businesses; and most of those people are not part of the local homeowner population. If they own a home it most likely is in Temecula.
So Temecula’s performance is interesting not just from a trend watcher perspective, but also because it can fairly be called the shape of things to come for the more central areas here in SD County.
It’s already happening. Look at the trends all across the Hwy-78 corridor. The foreclosure and price reduction trends are lagging those of Riverside County but they’re still happening and it’s still spreading south.
It’s not different this time, it’s not different here, we don’t have more people moving in than moving out, and being on the coast will not provide immunity from an economic trend.
If you disagree, please show the data you’re using to support that opinion. “Everyone wants to live here” is an emotional plea most commonly employed by the REIC, not a thoughtful or supported conclusion that has any foundation in fact.
