doofrat, i agree with the 30%-50% range depending on the neighborhood.
This threat is a good summary for everyone to put in their predictions.
We need some kind of system here to wager and keep track of predictions (but that would be online betting and illegal). I think that something like a $500 bet payable in 5 years would be kinda fun.
I already bet with my friend on the outcome in Iraq. Hope to collect in 2010, and hope he’s still my friend, ha.ha.