BTW, you are right on in assessing what could be down close to 30%. The least desirable condo properties have fallen first and fastest. Others are falling rapidly also. The pace is much faster than what I would have guessed leading me to believe the biggest drops will occur sooner than later. There was a tremendous amount of froth in the market that built up from the start of 2004 with no fundamentals whatsoever. That froth is being blown off the top like the foam off a frosty mug of beer!
For example, i just saw a house close in South Carlsbad for $1.16M which sold in the frenzy of the Spring 2004 market for $1.35M. Thats a price decline of close to $200,000 on a very desireable home in a very desireable community. Its happening very very fast. The question is what will happen after the silly gains realized since late 2003 disappear. My current feeling is that the pace of declines will slow to crawl. It could change but that is what I see right now.
BTW, I spoke with a bunch of oldtimers about the coast and will have what I found out as soon as I can get to it.
