[quote=desmond][quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=temeculaguy]
If I predict that the house you are in will burn down and tell you to run to your neighbors house to be safe, then both your house and the neighbors house burn down, am I genius?[/quote]
Well said ![/quote]
Without all the government intervention he would have been right now, he will be right later.[/quote]
Desmond, that doesn’t make any sense. Government intervention prevented Peter from being right? Do you understand what the analogy was in reference to. Blaming governemnt intervention has become bear mantra that it used as an excuse for anything that doesn’t go as predicted. It is becoming as tired as “real estate never goes down” did during the boom, repeating cliches and plattitudes is not an argument.
Here in a nutshell is what Peter said:
Sell all your U.S. stocks and get rid of all your U.S. real estate and cash. Buy European and Asian stocks and currency because the U.S. will “decouple” from the rest of the world. The U.S. will have a recession while the rest of the world will not, the world doesn’t need the U.S.
Because a component of that thesis was correct doesn’t make it a good plan. It turned out the world went down with us, converting your holdings got you nowhere, the link to mich’s column showed that it actually did worse. In another analogy, someone predicted that ford stock would tank so they told you to sell your ford and buy Gm, turns out they both tanked and gm tanked worse, so you get no brownie points for calling the demise of ford stock because your advice offered no better and in some respects a worse return.
Now how did the government intervention tank the decoupling theory. Did Obama make the asian and euro markets go down?
