[quote=davelj]I may end up eating these words, but the low end (let’s call that <$250K) might be ever-so-close to being at a bottom. So much easy financing and incentives have been thrown at this end of the market that, combined with generally low interest rates, it's simply cheaper to own them than to rent them (even adjusting for lower rents)... which is why these foreclosures are flying off the shelves at a faster rate than new foreclosures are coming on line (even adjusting for monkey business). And if we have a few months where prices at the low end stabilize and inventory remains tight, the media will start bottom calling which will lead to a positive feedback mechanism of sorts.
Now, that won't help the middle or high ends. The incentives haven't been thrown at them yet and these folks are losing their jobs right now. And they have to play catch-up in the price decline game relative to the low end. Too many properties in these groups remain disconnected from rents.
But the low end might be almost done for all intents are purposes thanks to the Officialdom's clear-out-the-foreclosures-at-any-cost policies. But the wild card, of course, is that rates have to remain low.[/quote]
I think that positive feedback aspect may come a lot faster in SD county.
The new MLS rules will chop down inventory dramatically. I don't know if this will lead to a rally or even stabilization but I strongly suspect it will have some material effect.
