Daniel, I attended Thornberg’s conference in May 2006, and studied the forcast report he handed out at that time. I studied it in detail. I met with Ryan Ratcliff after the talk, and then spoke with some of the UCLA professors for almost one hour. So my comments about him are based on actual knowledge of his forecasts.
You may be relying on soundbites. For example,Thornberg says we are in a bubble, and many people wrongly interpret that to mean he thinks prices will drop. In his conference, he said, “A bubble means an asset price is disconnected from its fundamentals. It does NOT mean a price will drop. In the case of housing, prices will NOT drop, but wages will catch up. Don’t sell your house. That would be a mistake.”
Daniel, I don’t want to rewrite my analysis of Thornberg’s forecasts, but you can do a search, as I posted it all here, as well as on ocrenter’s site. If you want to debate with me, then please tell me where I am wrong in my analysis, or which of his specific conclusions you agree with and why.
