CFC will probably go lower – perhaps a lot lower – but it’s an unlikely BK candidate because it does have a franchise with perceived value (“perceived” being the operative word). Consequently, if things got really dicey, my guess is that someone like Chris Flowers would organize a group to recapitalize the company, albeit at a single-digit share price. The trick, whether an investor or depositor, is to figure out which depositories will end up handing the keys over to the regulators and which ones have a franchise – whether in the form of originations or deposits – that’s worth saving from an investor’s viewpoint. CFC has the perception of being something worth saving, although that could change over time…
