[quote=carlsbadworker]I actually think the post is not that ridiculous. Technology is slowing down on subjective level. Planes are flying to more places but we are not travelling any faster than the decade ago. Some NASA exploration is still on-going, but we felt that we have seen all that is to see and traveling outside the solar system is still not a reachable goal. In 1970, Congress promised victory over cancer in six years’ time; four decades later, we are still here. The nuclear industry and its 1954 promise of “electrical energy too cheap to meter” sounds like yesterday’s dream after Fukushima. Energy and batter are holding the progress for new technologies.
But on the other end, people forgot that technology progress is never linear and these “incremental changes” might amount to something in the future. We are closer ever to AI thanks to the steady Moore’s law. That’s making machines equal to human, which stands back on millions years of evolution. And then there is bio-science, we are creating new DNA and organism, a domain that used to belong to God.
It is after all impossible to predict the future progress of the technology. But Internet does unleash a great amount of creativity and collaboration, with time, I think it will eventually amount to something.[/quote]Yes, it is ridiculous to say:
[quote=CA renter]
As for those innovations, while I respect the fact that many people are in love with their iPhones, the main innovation was getting a mobile phone into a person’s hand. That was done well before this past decade. Navigation is cool, but the rest is just “fluff” as far as I’m concerned.[/quote] and
[quote=CA renter]Sorry, but I’m just not seeing the life-altering innovations that you seem to be seeing. Of course, I’ll admit that you are more tech-focused than I am, so you’re more likely to notice the incremental changes that might be a big deal to you (and others like you), but not nearly as impressive to me (and others like myself).[/quote] and lastly but most importantly
[quote=CA renter]I also think you greatly underestimate the extent to which our economy IS zero-sum.[/quote]
Specifically, she thinks
[quote=CA renter]If we compare the “innovations” of the past few years with the innovations from our “glory days” in the 1940s-1960s, we’re not doing so well. If Facebook is what we consider to be innovation and progress, then we’re in serious trouble, IMHO.[/quote]
I can state many more life changing technology today than one can state from the “glory days”.
As to your most, what do you mean technology is slowing down on subjective level? I see technology is rapidly increasing on both subjective and objective level. Just 15 years ago, we were ecstatic that we have 466MHz computer with 128B of RAM and 1GB if hard disk space. Today, even your low end smart phone is have 1GHz+ processor, 512MB of RAM and 16GB if storage, all in a package that’s smaller than the size of a hard drive.
Then there’s the 24/7 connectivity and abundant information at your finger tip today. 15 years ago, if you’re out and you don’t know something, you’re SOL. Today, you can pull out your smart phone, get on Google/Bing and find the answer immediately. 15 years ago, when you go to a restaurant, you’re at the mercy of your luck or your friends’ recommendation. Today, you can hop on Yelp and you can see whether you should go to a particular restaurant or not, and if you should, you can make reservation right then and there on Opentable. 15 years ago, if you’re out and you decide on a whim to go see a particular movie, you’d have to drive to the movie theater, see when the show time is and wait at the movie theater until the show. Today, you can pull out your smart phone, search for the movie you want to see, you’ll get show time for the theaters near you, so you don’t have to go to the theater until it’s closer to the show time. You can also buy tickets on your phone through Fandango. I can go on and on about the drastic improvement to regular people’s daily life due to innovation and technology in the last 15 years, but I’m sure you get the point.
What you’re describing about NASA and cure for Cancer. That basically prove my point. No one can predict which technology will take off. The more engineers we have, the higher likelihood of new sectors get created or speed up of cure for cancer. This is why it’s ridiculous to say it’s a 0 sum game. New innovation create new sectors.
