Cagan did not say “chance of default”, but “risk of default”. He EXPECTS them to default. I did not say “1 mil loans WILL default”, but that Cagan expects it.
That is exactly what I meant: the expectations for defaults are rising. No longer are we hearing that everything is okay. The analysts are waking up to the risks in these loans.
To the trio: please put personal comments in the off-topic forum.
