The statistics on foreclosures are manipulated because many lenders have simply stopped foreclosing on many people who would have been foreclosed on in times past. Additionally, asset prices are artificially high because interest rates are artificially low, pushing more and more people further out on the risk curve than they would have been without all of the manipulations (repeating the same mistakes that caused the “financial crisis” in the first place). This has been keeping foreclosures off the market, too, either by enabling people to sell instead of being foreclosed on, or by enabling them to refinance to lower and lower rates (which I don’t think is a bad thing, it’s just not the norm, historically-speaking).
As for employment trends, most people I know are making less than they were in 2008, and many of their jobs are also less stable than they once were. More people who want to be employed full-time are being employed part time, and they are often under-employed, as well.
People have been watching their incomes go down or stagnate while the costs of basic goods and services have skyrocketed — so many have lost a lot of purchasing power since 2008.
The unemployment numbers are skewed because the participation rate has declined rather dramatically…and these numbers still don’t include those who are under-employed or who are employed part time, but want to work full time.
Once upon a time, people believed that “inflation” would make their earnings go up, but that lie has been largely put to rest. Instead, it will make the cost of living/asset prices go up while wages stagnate or decline, especially if we don’t do anything to stop the race to the bottom in the “globalized” economy.
Just my 2 cents, but I have to agree with what HLS has been saying. I think that there are much larger risks out there than most people are willing to acknowledge.[/quote]
CAR, as I said before, I haven’t cited any foreclosure statistics, only delinquency statistics. Have they been manipulated?
I’ve also cited trends, not hard numbers. Is there any evidence that the number of houses that could be in foreclosure is higher now than it has been in the recent past? Beyond that, I would argue against the assertion that the numbers of foreclosures are being “manipulated”. Lenders are horrible at dealing with distressed assets. That’s not a new phenomena, it’s been that way for decades.
As I also said before, the employment trends are also improving. There are not more unemployed people now than a few years ago, there are fewer. It still sucks, but that doesn’t make it worse now than 4 years ago.
In agreeing with HLS, you’re arguing that the housing market is at a higher risk of imploding today than 5 years ago. The fact is, the housing market DID implode 5 years ago. I’m not arguing that there is no risk of it happening again. Only that the statistics cited aren’t evidence that we’re at higher risk today than 5 years ago. They all point to lower risk.
