There are plenty of examples of people who did all of the things you’ve mentioned above (low-balling, “shopping” for years in particular areas, refusing to bid against over-eager buyers with low-down mortgages or too much cash, etc.). Many of these posters eventually managed to buy in their #1 areas at, OR BELOW, non/pre-bubble prices that they had been comfortably willing to pay.
The only reason these buyers were able to make these good deals is because they’d spent YEARS studying their target markets, familiarizing themselves with particular properties and areas, and studying the causes/effects of the bubble mentality. It was because they waited for so long that they were able to be the winners instead of the losers in the housing bubble game. They were able to do this because they did NOT listen to the vast majority of realtors out there who were insisting that people buy now, or be priced out…FOREVER!
We are still very much in bubble territory. With interest rates and housing inventory at/near historic lows (with both more likely to go up from here, rather than down), this is NOT the time to buy.[/quote]
CAR, I was referring to self-proclaimed buyers (or, in actuality, “shoppers”) between 2008 and 2011, who, although prices were falling and already fell substantially from the “peak” of 2005 and there was quite a bit of available distressed listings in most zip codes, they just couldn’t seem to make a deal. That was roughly a 3-1/2 year time period … a “window of opportunity,” so to speak.
CAR, do you think prices will ever come back to the late 2008 to late 2011 level in SD County?
I don’t … because the fundamentals which caused the 2004-2007 bubble and subsequent crash (primarily “loose lending”), are long gone.
For all we know, these “prospective buyers” during our market downtown are still renting today. And that’s okay. Perhaps they really just wanted to continue to rent, regardless of their “desires” they posted here. For years, we heard numerous complaints on this board of sewed-up REOs and SS’s that couldn’t be touched by a buyer who needed a 90%+ mortgage … or even in some cases, an 80% mortgage. Where, in many areas of the county, single family homes DID sell traditionally and also with 95% LTV and FHA/VA mtgs during that era. And these homes continue to do so today. Sure, they’re a little more expensive now, but still “affordable.” Most of the distressed properties are now gone, so the SFR market is a little cleaner. For example, we no longer see listings with stripped fixtures and 4′ high weeds. So what if the same type of properties on the market are $30 – $60K higher! The vast majority of the listed SFR stock actually has working appls and fixtures in them now and a cared-for landscaping. You pay for what you get.
I was just referring to the handful of Piggs who missed the boat, complaining of “taking a break” or “suspending their search.” That ship has already sailed and now if they want to become “shoppers” again in SD County, they’ve got to completely change their search parameters or come up with a lot more cash.
Had they been more realistic with their search parameters when many SFR’s were selling at or below land value, they might have been able to strike a deal. But they were too fixated on their “wants” and so those “wants” ended up to be too unrealistic for their available resources.
That was and is the cause of “buyer fatigue,” IMHO, at least in CA coastal counties. As I have posted here before, this phenomenon wasn’t present in previous generations in their prime homebuying years because there wasn’t all the new subdivisions and zip codes to choose from that there is today which are undoubtedly confusing prospective buyers. In addition, work centers were scattered in primarily four places (a) dtn SD; (b) MV; and to a very small extent (c) SV, consisting of one dead-end st; and (d) SR, consisting of one st and one cul-de-sac. In addition, there were more large employers at that time around Gillespie Field (EC) that have since folded or located out-of-state.
The Golden Triangle and Sorrento Mesa had not yet been developed.
I think the MR CFD Act had the effect of creating a dizzying array of choices for SD County homebuyers in recent years and thus many of them were/are confused and have a hard time comparing apples to apples.
Even though some of us here do our best to wade thru the confusion and try to offer down-to-earth advice and suggestions to homebuyers, ESP FTB’s, some of them are obviously so paralyzed by confusion that they can’t make a decision in their family’s best interest and so end up buying nothing.
I think it’s a shame that some qualified buyers with minor children have not yet bought or have decided to leave the local market (but continue to rent) because it is not going to get any easier to buy as time marches on.
Prevailing mortgage interest rates be damned (since history has proven time and time again that they don’t affect pricing in CA coastal counties).
And no, I’m not a CAR/NAR lackey who preaches, “Buy before you’re priced out.” But I think families who NEED a home for their children should buy one and if they have had trouble doing so in the past while being otherwise qualified, then they need to change their strategy. Their kids will grow up right before their eyes as their rent increases almost every year and then they may not need or want a family home anymore.
In a nutshell, today’s family-raising buyer’s “expectations” are w-a-a-a-y too high for life’s little realities, IMO. Those soaring “expectations” have kept more than a few prospective buyers perpetual renters.
