[quote=CA renter]Agree that this spring will probably see pretty brisk sales…but we’ll see slower activity than 2008 (which was very high activity).
Also thinking we’ll see major price drops in the more desirable neighborhoods by Q3 2009, for an average of around 30-45% off peak in 92024 and 92009 (that’s for you sdrealtor!). 😉
I think 2008 saw the dead-cat bounce in sales which resulted in stickier prices in the upper-mid to high end properties.
After an initial period of elation in the first two quarters of 2009, activity will drop like a rock around August of next year due to macroeconomic trends (massive deflation and unemployment hitting 10%+ in California). This will also be the time that all those “re-worked” mortgages run into trouble again, and we finally see the wall of foreclosures that the govt has been trying to artificially hold back.[/quote]
Dredging up my post from last November, I was very wrong on 2008 having the higher sales.
Still…the 10%+ unemployment part was right, unfortunatley. It will be interesting to see Q3 of 2009.
It’s important to remember that all of this housing (hyper)activity is NOT organic. We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
