Thanks for the succinct analysis that does seem to sum it up. Yes, it seems the biggest question is the most difficult one… I’ll definitely work on running some numbers based on your suggestions but the one thing I didn’t mention is that my wife seems fairly intent on locking in a deal before our Prop 60 two-year limit. I have to admit that under prop 60, selling near the peak and buying after a significant 18-mo. downturn does have a somewhat rosy appearance. Again, the big question is whether in this case it would have a silver lining…
I’m reading the tea leaves here and elsewhere and trying to figure out who is making the best and most realistic predictions about further price declines. I can tell you that I won’t know for certain until I can see it in the rear view mirror. From what I consider more trustworthy sources, I’m generally understanding that a bottom in this cycle probably won’t materialize until ’09-’10, but the question is how far would it go down in the neighborhood we choose. In some ways, the decision appears easier because we will be there long term and (acts of God aside) I do have a long term faith in SD RE. I remember riding through the early nineties when the downturn nearly wiped out my 30% down payment made in Nov ’89, but then… we weren’t selling. I think the areas we’re looking at are currently not falling further due mainly to the economy still holding up and the inventories there being limited to a relatively low number of must sell properties. However, it’s clear that rents and incomes are still out of whack with SD prices, and of course there is the question of how deep the wayward credit market effect will go.
So, if we assumed that our analysis would at best be based on a fair amount uncertainty, and possibly even falls into the realm of a 50/50 bet, I would be quite interested to hear which way you all would lean.
