Bugs I don’t think you are not too far off form what might be considered a big chunk by me. 20% or more in a 12 month period keeping in mind that %20 on the downside starting now will eliminate more than the 30% added, roughly speaking that happened around 2004. sdr started the post with this idea of a big chunk like this…”On the other side we have those that believe a large chunk of pricing (10% or more) is about to be taken out of the market quickly (LS2008, Rustico etc.)” I think 10% would have to be 3-6months to qualify as a “big chunk”. + or – 10% might be hard to notice with all the “noise” anyway.
sdr SD R,
I hear what you are saying about people just refusing to sell. In the last cycle I heard time and time again that “it is just a loss on paper doesn’t bother me at all”. Those people are all fine now if they haven’t done stupid things since.
So it will as, Rich has said, be all about the must sell and what buyers will do in view of that inventory.That said what is going to be must sell? From Anectdotal perspectives and and analytical ones as well this cycle got way further out of whack than the last.Who knows? Maybe San Diego has experienced the San Francisco effect and will never be affordable again? Outmigration doesn’t support this but who knows when those people and many new ones will come in to support prices?
Too many variables really.
