[quote=briansd1][quote=SD Realtor]
Once the yuan reaches a certain threshold with regards to internationalization I think the game will change in a big way.
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For that to happen, China must first develop a self-sustaining consumer economy that is balanced between exports and domestic consumption. That economy must be able to operate on auto-pilot regardless of political changes.
China still has a lot of work to do. Same goes for Brazil, Argentina, and the ASEAN region. Europe has at least another decade of political adjustments.[/quote]
Brian: Here we go again with these anodyne solutions. China must develop a self-sustaining consumer economy? Okay, I’ll bite. How long will that take? Given that China is going to get old before they get rich, who will provide this self-sustaining consumer economy? Most important, what happens in the meantime? Because that’s the real question, isn’t it?
China is a massive, state-sponsored bubble. Their real estate market is possibly heading for a hard landing and there are untold billions in bad loans on the books that will have to be dealt with.
Proffering simple solutions and tautologies as a working plan is meaningless. China’s “success”, such as it is, is about to come to a screeching halt and the Communist Party leadership doesn’t have a solution. Witness the incredible amount of capital flight from China right now. Think those folks might know a thing or two about what’s going to happen?
