[quote briansd1]
If you believe that there will be an energy crisis and utility rates will be “punitive”, you should include that data in your cash flow analysis for payback calculation purposes.
[/quote]
If you factor in the current increases in rates and the discount/tax advantage you get for solar, it largely pencils in already.
Add in potential costs due to restricting C02 via automobiles to electric vehicles(see below) and potential cap and trade, the ‘pencil in’ value even looks better.
Taken from another angle, there is presently a glut of polycrystaline silicon and monocrystaline silicon wafers. How long this will last is questionable. EU nations have or are in the process of reducing their subsidies for construction of solar. The US still has some subsidies. With the potential for new ‘tax’ revenue and throwing Wall Street another bone(another market to control or speculate in), there is a high possibility of increases in energy prices to the consumer through one mechanism or another. How long there will be a glut in solar silicon is unknown.
**note on taxes, I have seen both parties jump for the pig-trough.. so the comment on potential ‘tax’ revenue is political party agnostic, but definitely anti-politician. They just can’t keep their fingers out of the public treasury.
**in terms of Cap and Trade, I also see it as a possible way for ‘landed’ people with a lot of property (1000s of acres or more), people that in a monarchy or similar structure would be considered ‘landed aristocracy’, to hold on to their property and parcel small amounts out at high price (after all, they are not making more land ya know). Right now they have to pay property tax on that land. With Cap and Trade, they are instantly a carbon sink.. and can be paid based upon that. Considering a single Sequoia tree can sequester 4tons of carbon per year.. it can add up. { but thats just me talking through my tinfoil hat… }
