bias in the equity markets is heavily in the upward direction – going short is a losing proposition for most people
upward bias is due to:
1. almost all 401K/IRA money is forced into long-only positions and this is mostly buy-and-hold money – ie, there is a long-term steady upward push to equity markets from the monthly injection of retirement money
2. inflation of money supply – currently happening at about an 11-12% rate in US – Russia increased their M-2 money supply by 48% last year – all the central banks are competing to devalue their currencies faster than the other guy – all this new money has to go somewhere and lots of it feeds into the equity markets pushing them upwards
because of the upward bias, shorting the markets becomes a game of short-term timing which most people are going to lose
