[quote=bearishgurl]Can I just ask you if you bought your own property at or near the bottom of the market and when you bought it, did you think that was the “bottom” at the time?[/quote]
I bought around the same time piggs are starting to buy in Temecula. At that time, I thought it is about 10% above the most-likely bottom and 30% above from the doomsday scenario (I choose to not buying at the bottom because it is hard for my wife to find a house that she likes to live in). But with that in mind, I did what Ren did which is I put rental property as a possibility (even though my house at ~2700sqft wasn’t ideal for rental property, but the cash flow shows break-even with some possible rents decline included).
My prediction is about right as I think we bought just a few months before the real bottom, looking back at the current moment. (Who knows if it is the real bottom, when future is included).
I actually don’t think timing is the most important thing in real estate. It is important from short-term perspective, but not for long-term. Just as timing is very important for traders but not for long-term equity investors. For long-term investors, valuation is most important. That means one has to sit down and run the number. For stocks, you calculate the discounted cash flow. For houses, you look at the price to rent. How difficult is that?
It’s really just a mindset issue. Too many people are so concerned about the possible gain that they forgot to ask what is there to lose. As Warren Buffett says, the first principle is don’t lose money. The second principle is don’t forget the first principle. If you aim to miminize loss, you minimized your loss. If one can not afford to add more principles to refin into lower rates (unless something unfortunate happens to you, such as job loss or illness), I would think one is not ready to buy the house. I think people who rely on real estate and mortgage broker to tell them whether they can or can not afford a house, are going to be more likely to lose their wealth.
I have a friend who bought during the UK housing bubble, who is now buying at the Australia housing bubble. She complained about her mis-fortune (that she bought when pound was really high). But I urged her not listening to the brokers into buying a terribly negative cash flow condo in Australia, she just wouldn’t listen. Apparently, the broker says everyone is going to be millionaire in Australia by investing into the hottest housing market on the planet. That’s nothing to do with timing but everything to do with math skill.
