[quote=bearishgurl][quote=no_such_reality][quote=bearishgurl]
Couldn’t have said it any better myself …. except for one caveat. In SD County, we already DO currently have hundreds of “affordable” residential listings within 20 miles of job centers. The areas they are situated in were “affordable” decades ago and are still “affordable” now.
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Minor nit, with 1.1 million housing units, you don’t hundreds, you need ten’s of thousands.
Owner occupied housing vacancy in SD is 1.9%. Owner occupancy housing is 591,000 units. At a reasonable turnover rate, you need 85,000 sales a year, or just over 7000/month.[/quote]
nsr, where are you coming up with SD County needing “tens of thousands” of (affordable?) housing units?
Why am I seeing some of these “affordable” local resales (SFRs AND condos) sitting on the market longer than 90 days (short of structural defects)?
Does SD County currently HAVE “85,000 sales a year” (incl new construction units)? Has it EVER??
How many of SD County’s annual residential sales are of an existing county resident vacating one home for another? Perhaps 85-90 percent??
nsr, ask yourself what would happen if SD County and its various city officials suddenly decide they will not approve any more subdivisions (some no doubt already have).
Are we suddenly going to fall off the map?
Actually, if there is no more building, this “population influx” we’re supposedly expecting will have absorb the resale listings and rental vacancies currently on the market. That’s the way it’s always been in CA coastal counties.
Do I hear violins? Cry me a river.
I suppose if it comes to the point where there is “no place to live here” (highly unlikely, due to natural mobility of existing residents), then these “potential newcomers” will stay put.
Is there something wrong with that?
Marin, SF and SM Counties don’t seem to think so. And btw, the quality of life is VERY high for the residents of all of those counties :=][/quote]
Let’s put some stuff in perspective. San Diego IS growing, whether you like it or not. I don’t know about last year, but 2011 was by about 80,000 people. But more than 1/2 of that growth was organic. People having babies. 40,000 new residents requires somewhere in the neighborhood of 15,000 housing units. (Housing density in SD is a little lower than state-wide averages at 2.75 per household.) I don’t know how over-built SD was in 2007. But I think last year permits were pulled for somewhere around 6,000 homes, higher than the previous few years. That’s enough for 40% of the organic growth, only 20% of total growth. 20,000 fewer homes built than growth requires, just to stay even.
San Diego may or may not be over-built today. I really don’t know. But at the current construction rate, it will be under built in the not too distant future. Which means significantly higher prices. Is that what you want?
