Bear, I thought I’d bring you out of hibernation with this thread. I was kinda bummed after two cosecutive deals fell through in the last two weeks. I am dreading the interest rate hike and possible r/e bounce or lack of foreclosures from the bailout but now that it has happened, the stock market tanked and wall street has switched from “please save us” to “that is a nice start, give us more.” I am sure the market can’t be saved. You know as well as anyone that I don’t need to be talked into the long term benefits of the area, just thought I’d cash out since I met my goals, but I’ve reset my goals once again.
your predictions are not that far off, but my e-mail of new listing from redfin today was almost exclusively in the 200’s.
While I didn’t get to play Pechanga’s course, my buddies went a few weeks back and loved it as well.
I haven’t formed an opinion just yet what the tent folding will do to the prices, less inventory is not always good. I’m convinced that I really need S.D. to begin it’s collapse to keep people from migrating since the gap has been widening, there are still 8-10 buyers on the day a place is listed when it is a premium place and priced right. In both the deals I lost (actually bowed out at certain points in the bidding war), my competition was not people facing foreclosure looking to downsize and let their previous place go, no were they zero down or investors. They were all over 20% down fence sitters from out of town, with income and solid credit, so there was no chance of them not qualifying. I theorized that there can’t be that many of them but other areas are not falling at the same pace so they keep showing up an peeing on my parade. I hope you are right about the $50 to $75 a square but I’m cool with $75-$90, the builders can’t build at those prices so we may see a contraction in inventory, which has not increased much in the last 12 months.
While I’m writing a novel, did you see “generation Kill” on HBO? It was made by the same crew that made “The Wire” and while I’m only on the third episode, it’s good stuff and fills the void the wire left in my life.
