[quote=barnaby33]You are trolling! I suppose it’s winter and you need a hobby.
Wow. So many mistakes I don’t know where to start.
“Our economy is collapsing”. Really? It is muddling along at about 2%, which isn’t great, but is the envy of Europe, Japan, South America, etc.
“The core of the theory (of peak oil) was extrapolating the curve of a well’s production life.” No it wasn’t. It was the idea that the world will exhaust nature’s supply of easily obtainable oil such that prices will rise drastically, to way above existing prices (then over $100 per barrel). How is that working out?
“Peak oil is still with us.” Oil is now about $40 and many predict it will go to $20.
Fracking: “…its existed for years.” True enough. Fracking on a small scale has been around for many decades. But with the improved technology of the last few years, we can squeeze much more oil and gas out of weak sources such that fracking gives America at least ten times more oil and gas than a decade or so ago. That’s technology and the profit system at work for the good of the consumer.
I stand by the idea that America will become a net energy exporter, and I never said we would become a net oil exporter. But in the last week congress, in a bipartisan vote, ended the 40-year old ban on oil exports, so who knows?
Remember Peak Oil? A few years ago we were all told that oil prices, then over $100, would soon double and then double again, as the world’s supplies became exhausted.
Then along came fracking. Good old capitalism harnessed technology to again stymie the doomsayers. Now the US will become an energy exporter to the rest of the world. In some previous years we imported about half of our oil. Soon we will produce more energy than Saudi Arabia. Once again the market system comes through.
I remember Peak Oil, I remember it well. No serious proponent of it forgets that the core of the theory was merely extrapolating the curve of a well’s production life, can be used to predict when a given well or field of wells will become unproductive, in an economic sense.
So who said a few years ago that doubling and doubling again was the course of our future? Certainly not I. Nor anyone who’s analysis I’ve read.
Then came along fracking? Came along, really? It’s existed for years. It wasn’t economically viable and still isn’t unless you ignore all the externalities. Capitalism is REALLY good at ignoring externalities. I’d say the only reason we even have an EPA is because capitalism you love so much is great at ignoring externalities.
The US an energy exporter? Wow now you’re into troll country. It probably doesn’t look anything like those Marlboro ads, but bless yer heart fer tryin! Yes we export a lot of coal and we always have. That too, we are past the peak on, but that’s a totally different discussion. We aren’t in any danger of being a net oil exporter anytime soon and if we are it’s because holy shit our economy is collapsing. That’s one place in which capitalism does work, until it doesn’t. You know when we can no longer get energy cheap enough to heat our homes, we don’t rely on capitalism, we go to war.
Never mind that the entire global energy complex is only made possible by the largest socialist enterprise in American history, our military. It safeguards all of that energy we so capitalistically want.
So when I accuse you of trolling, I’m being quite accurate. Peak Oil is still with us, no super giant has been discovered or exploited since Cantarel and the cost of extracting most of the new discoveries is high enough that our globalized system can’t afford it. So to speak in Capitalistic terms. Energy cheap enough to maintain our status quo kills the energy companies. Energy expensive enough to generate a consistent profit for those companies, kills their consuming economies. That sir in a nutshell is Peak Oil and it is absolutely with us today.
Unless somebody gets a fusion reactor working we are going to keep living with declining EROEI. Symptoms may include temporary gluts of oil as economies collapse and temporary shortages as we all fight over the scraps at the table. Your mileage may vary.
