– This seems to be pretty in line with the overall case shiller HPI… I will remind folks that the latest CS data is for Feb, while this is all the way through April… smith’s further 6% decline fits in with what we’ve seen from median pr/sqft.
– Looks like a spring rally in the top tier, because the Feb CS is actually worse than esmith’s April value for top tier. (Though the graph only shows rallying in CV, 4$, etc). But no sign of a rally for the lower tiers.
As far as the lower tier has fallen, as of Feb is was still more overpriced (based on historical relationship with incomes) than the upper two tiers, but it went that much more nuts in the boom. At this point it may be getting back to parity, and the mid-tier may actually be below parity with the high tier.
I’ve always thought there would be a substitution effect bringing down the high tiers, but it doesn’t make sense for this to happen until the other tiers are undervalued on a historical basis compared to the high tier. This hasn’t happened yet — or maybe it’s just starting to happen now.
