As I read it you are basically making two arguments here:
1 – People with money are moving to town; and
2 – Great jobs are being added that will support that pricing structure.
However, neither of these suggestions are borne out by the data. The U-Haul test only shows 1 household coming in for every 4 households that leave. The breakdown of employment that Rich posts every month shows that the distribution of employment is migrating away from the higher paying jobs toward the lower paying jobs.
Not only that, but the data for sales volume, foreclosures, and pricing all indicate that this area is indeed not disconnected from the rest of the region nor is it in any way immune from the same trends that are happening in other overextended markets. Indeed, SD is running faster into decline than LA or the OC.
So far, we have seen no data that indicates that this time it is different or that SD is now so special that it will somehow escape its own historical trends. All the data we’ve seen shows SD is well on its way to repeating it’s pattern.
Maybe it is Seattle and the Bay area that will correct to their wage and population trends.
