Sold our primary residence in SD in 2005, but still have a SFR held as a rental in West Clairemont/Bay Park area. As of this spring this SFR rented (quickly) for 100% of our current carrying costs (minus repairs/maintenance, of course). It is positive cash flow after taxes.
We bought with 20% down in 3Q 2002 for ~340K.
So for central coastal SD I would look for a downside in the range of 3Q 2002 prices, plus whatever rental increases happen between now and the bottom of the market.
My guess: 19% decrease in value (35% for the price difference between now and 3Q 2002, minus 16% increase in rents over the next 4 years).
