[quote=AN] We’re the first group to call the top, so I suspect we’ll be the first group to call the bottom.[/quote]
I wish you are right.
Since I’ve read The Bubble Primer in 2005 I became an adamant believer in housing bubble burst. I knew the prices are going down a lot.
Now it’s a different story though, I am not so sure about the future of the housing market anymore. Granted, the current trend is still down. But for how long? Have you seen a convincing metric that can predict bottom(s) with at least 10% accuracy? A metric, mind you, that should be based on (macro) fundamentals, yet make a quantitative prediction on an extremely local matter? Do you even believe it’s mathematically possible?
