an – how did 9/11 change the cycle? I didn’t see that in the data. The prices were going up continuously since before that, and did not go down at all. You mentioned a slowing in the rate of increase, but that is not in the method. I am looking for a shift, not a slowing in the rate of increase.
The median price data is very interesting, as is the data showing prices rise in the summer. Inventory rises in the summer too, as do sales.
Again, the method is not concerned with prices, medians, or even inventory.
The data part of the method is months inventory, so it combines supply and demand. This seems to be the most accurate metric of market direction.
I think I must not be explaining it well, because people are posting all this data about prices.
Disproving the theory requires showing that months inventory was rising while prices rose, or months inventory declinded while prices fell. I’ve not been able to find this data anywhere.
This is the method I will use, and I may miss the bottom by a month or two, but with real estate so slow moving, I would miss out at most on 1% or 2% of price. Small price to pay for being at the bottom. Imagine buying too early, and having the house lose another 5% or 10%.
an, you are welcome to keep this method in mind as you plan your purchase, or discard it, as you wish. I just learned about this method, so I will use it in the future, and maybe I will get rich! I can buy a lot of rental property at the bottom, and hold it for many years.
