Also, if you were to draw a trendline of median San Diego prices starting at 1980, and excluding the period 2002-2005, you’d come up with an estimated median price of about $350K. Instead we hit the peak at around $600K, so you’d need a 42% immediate decline from that point to get to $350K. But, if you assume a 30% decline from peak to trough over 3-5 years and another 5 years of flattish prices, the long-term trendline reestablishes itself around 2015. Consequently, there’s no “need” for prices to drop by 40%-50% in order to mean revert if you assume several years of flattening prices. Just a thought.
