Allan, in no way am I a military scholar, so my words are just that- words.
Its hard for me to imagine Afghanistan being seen as a Vietnam by the public until we get the casualties that were sustained during Vietnam. It was definitely the huge casualties, with no goal and no end in sight that made the Vietnam War so unpopular. The Dali Lama said something to the extent “People don’t mind suffering as long as they know there is a reason”. Which is why during WWII and its huge casualties we still supported the war; there definitely seemed to be a reason and victories won.
You are right; without a clear plan Afghanistan could resemble Vietnam, but Vietnam was lost in the public’s eyes and it seemed that brought it to a close before the job was complete. The public…isn’t to involved with Afghanistan, it’s definitely not a huge political platform like Iraq was.
I don’t know the military logistics that will keep Afghanistan calm and cool. What worries me though is the scenario that we do pull out of both Iraq and Afghanistan- Iran then gets a foothold in both countries. Iran rubs elbows with its old relatives, the Shia in Iraq. Its possible the Shia of both countries will exact revenge on the Sunni population, but most important is Iran’s influence and proximity to the nation.
Iran gets a foothold in Afghanistan, because the country is so fragile and easy to take over.
Iran then secures a relationship with Pakistan on good terms again. Suddenly, we are looking at a huge Iranian superpower with Pakistan and its nukes at their side.
So- we pull out, but I fear if we do when we go back the job will be even harder with enemies coming from all around with an enemy footing even more strong and nukes on the table.
