OCR: I read that Op/Ed piece about the Romney landslide in the UT. Wow. I’m surprised that Obama is struggling with a candidate as weak as Mittens, but I doubt very much it’s gonna be a landslide. It should prove to be a very tight race, right to the finish. I think Obama is pursuing a very canny strategy in trying to deliver a knockout blow early, but I’d also be very nervous (if I were him) at this point. He’s expended gobs of cash and still hasn’t achieved any meaningful separation in the polls.
Given that polls tend to oversample Dems, he hasn’t been looking at a lot of good news lately, especially when you look at Romney’s developing edge in the fundraising race.
Gonna be interesting.[/quote]
It’s gonna be tight, and it’s actually feasible Obama will lose the popular vote and win the electoral college, simply by squeaking by in a lot of purple states while getting killed in Red states. Romney is really benefiting from the terrible economy and new SuperPAC rules. Based on economic numbers alone, Obama should be getting killed in the polls. His resilience shows both that he is personally popular and Willard is a bad candidate.
I’m not sure why you think polls oversample Dems, unless you mean polls that look at registered voters instead of likely voters? Republicans do tend to win the turnout battle, so registered voter polls aren’t good at reflecting elections. Polling science is complex, the best method really seems to be to average a bunch of polls together over time.
